Turning into an Advantage Player

Big winners at sports betting will always have a close association with advantage players. This term is used to refer to those sports bettors who place bets only when the odds are stacked in their favor. Even if on the average, bookmakers have an advantage of 4.55 percent on straight bets, the key issue that we have to take note of is that such measurements are expressed on the average basis. There will be some variances on specific betting situations, and an advantage player will be able to lock in those instances where the advantage of the bookmaker is in negative territory.

Whether your objective is to become a sport betting pro or earn a decent income on the side, one of the most important things that you must do is stop making bets with negative expected value or “- EV.”

Expected Value – What Is It All About

Expected value is used in sports betting jargon as an indicator, positive or negative, that will guide bettors in choosing the best option given the possible outcomes of different options. Sports bettors are perpetually facing situations where they have to make decisions by choosing one from multiple options. These choices have different outcomes and you need to carefully assess the expected value of these options in order to minimize your losses while you are looking for a way to maximize your gains.

Let us tackle the principle behind this indicator by considering a hypothetical example of coin flipping. Let us assume that we are playing the game and you pay me $1 every time a head comes out of a coin flip and I pay you $1 every time we get a tail. We can continue playing the game in all eternity and neither of the 2 of us will have any advantage over the other mainly because, ON THE AVERAGE, half of the time either of us will win $1 and the other half of the time will lose $1. There may be some momentary swings back and forth, but as long as we continue flipping coins, both of us will eventually break even. This is a typical example of a bet with a neutral expected value.

Now, let us assume that I become tired of the original setup and you offer me a better deal to stay on the game. I stand to get paid $1.10 every time a head comes up from a coin flip and I still pay you $1 every time a tail comes up. This means that half of the time, I will be winning $1.10 and half of the time I will be losing $1.00. Thus, if we flip coins for 100 times, my average win would be equivalent to $55 (50 wins at $1.10 each) and average losses would be equivalent to $50 (50 losses at $1.00 each). Under this arrangement, I have a positive expected value of $0.05 for every coin flip. On the other hand, you will have a negative expected value of $0.05.

Every sports bettor has either a positive or negative expected value and in rare cases a neutral expected value for every betting decision that they make. In order to win in sports betting you need to find or choose bets with positive expected value (+EV) and avoid those with negative expected value (-EV).

Expected Value – Does It Matter

Expected value or EV in sports betting has a distinct twist – sports bettors are fully aware of the house advantage but are clueless of the real odds of them winning or losing. And this is the point where experience and knowledge come into play. It is extremely necessary that you carefully assess your decision and when you can estimate the outcome quite adequately then you can tilt the odds in your favor.

Let us assume that Team X is playing Team Y in the Premier League. The odds given by the bookmaker for Team X is +300 or 4/1. But you are extremely knowledgeable when it comes to the performance of Team X and Team Y and you are pretty confident that Team X will win 50 percent of the time. This means that the expected value would be positive when you bet on Team X.

Expected Value, EV = wagered amount + (expected win – expected loss)

Using our hypothetical example and considering your point of view:

Expected Win = 0.50 x 4 = 2

Expected Loss = 0.50 x 1 = 0.5

Expected Value, EV = 1 + (2.0 – 0.5) = 2.5

The derived positive EV in our example means that it would be extremely favorable when you place your bet on Team X and it is akin to producing the proverbial wine from water, since you stand to gain $2.5 for every $1 wager.

Finding Bets with Positive EV

One of the main reasons why we don’t see a lot of “savvy” and sharp sports bettors learning the intricacies on advantage players is because the process is generally time consuming. In most cases, sports bettors don’t usually have enough leads to start with and there is also the tendency of one getting overwhelmed by the “complexity” of the entire process. But if you are really serious in improving your odds, then finding bets with positive EV should be well worth your time.

Prop Betting Strategy – Proposition bets or prop bets offer the easiest opportunity for wagering. We will be tackling prop betting strategy in more detail in a separate article. The relevant information about prop betting should immensely help us in our search for sports bets with positive expected value. Over time, you will be able to “decode” other prop bets and become a fully-fledged advantage player.

Teaser Betting Strategy – This betting strategy provides the easiest way for sports bettors to find bets with positive expected outcome. And when we take into account the current trend in the sports betting market, we can realize that the betting lines are extremely efficient prior to game time. Teaser bets are generally based on the existing betting lines. Thus, you no longer need to engage in deeper analysis in order to determine whether a straight bet has a positive expected outcome or not. M.A.H.

Prop Bet – An Easy Beat

This type of bet is considered to be the easiest form of wager to beat. In order to show concrete proof of such a claim, the Las Vegas Hilton, the leading sportsbook for props in Las Vegas, has admitted that Las Vegas sportsbooks have incurred huge losses on props in many occasions. On the other hand, there are numerous sportsbooks that are willing to accept bets amounting to $5,000 to $40,000 each on the sides of NFL games but set a cap of two hundred or three hundred dollars for props.

The main reason why props remain to be the wager that is the easiest to beat is mainly because of the “carelessness” of some bookmakers. Because of the sheer number of lines that they have to come up with and manage, most line managers are just content with the simple methods of creating such betting lines and setting limits to the bets for what is considered to be a “small” market for props. In addition to this, line managers are confident that the low betting limit for props would keep the betting sharks at bay and the line movement will usually be dictated by recreational action. Thus, for a savvy sportsbook, the absence of sharks, presence of a good number of fishes and careless bookmaking make a good recipe for a profitable market for props.

Assessing the Odds of Prop Bets

One of the most important things that you must remember about props is that the more savvy bettors placing prop bets the lower is the probability of winning. No person in his right mind will ever attempt to make a comprehensive guide for prop betting. In order to learn the intricacies of this type of wager, you need to continually pick up a few pieces of information and best practices along the way. And while you will have to do some research to get to that state where you can make an “expert” analysis of any prop that is being offered, this article should help you out with the fundamentals to get you on the right track.

Which Team Will Score First?

This is a widely available prop in NFL games and we will consider an example and illustrate how we can make a sound betting decision. The first thing that you have to do is to shop around and look for the best value for this prop. Let us consider the following options:

TheGreek: Ravens -175/Packers +145
5Dimes: Ravens -147/Packers +126
Pinnacle: Ravens -165/Packers +135
Sportsbook.ag: Ravens -150/Packers +130
Bookmaker.com: Ravens -170/Packers +140

After the lines have been gathered, a sports bettor may feel optimistic about its prospects. A good choice then would be “Ravens -147/Packers +145,” which obviously has a small margin. This means that in the event that there is further movement in the lines, you would definitely have an opportunity for arbitrage. And with this option, you can now take it to the next step.

If you don’t understand and are not really familiar with the intricacies of the derivatives, it is important that you learn about it since it is an important aspect of sports betting. To put things in simple terms, the prop bet that we are after “which NFL team scores first” is what is known to be a derivative and this means that it is derived from betting lines of the first half of the games.

For further analysis of the prop bet, let us consider another example which consists of the following lines:

TheGreek: Ravens -4 / Packers +4 (25)
5Dimes: Ravens -3.5 -115 / Packers +3.5 +105
Pinnacle: Ravens -4 / Packers +4 (25)
Sportsbook.ag: Ravens -4 -105 / Packers +4 -115
Bookmaker.com: Ravens -4 / Lion +4

5Dimes and Pinnacle are known for their fastidiousness when it comes to the accuracy of their lines. On the other hand, TheGreek, Bookmaker and Sportsbook are perceived to be more inclined with pricing at -110 for each side. These are basically the lines that concern sports bettors who are interested with prop bets. Using a certain method which will be discussed in detail in a future article, the calculated no-vig money line at Sportsbook is Packers +4 +104 / Ravens -4 +104. On the other hand, the no-vig money line at 5Dimes is Packers +3.5 +110 / Ravens -3.5 -11.

Based on the information cited above, the most appropriate method of analysis would be the half-time push on the favorite prevailing over the underdog by 4 points at the close of the first half. With a more detailed research, you will be able to change the 3.5 at 5Dimes and turn it into a base equivalent to 4 points, and derive the average out each of the lines in order to create a more accurate prediction of the point advantage during the first half.

On the other hand, you can make things simple by saying that Packers are expected to cover plus 4 a little bit more often than Ravens are expected to cover minus 4. However, when it comes close to a spread equal to 3.5, there will be a rapid shift of the odds in favor of the Ravens. Any fraction of one percent won’t have any significance, and thus it would be appropriate to come up with ballpark figures. For our example, this would be -3.9 for Ravens.

When it comes to the total, comparing 24.5 total score and 25 total score at halftime based on a 1/2 point spread is obviously one-sided in favor of 24.5. In fact, if you examine the NFL data in the last 5 years, you will discover that not even once has the halftime score summed up to 25 points. Being an odd number, it would be something that is extremely hard to achieve based on the 3-point and 7-point intervals in the scoring. Thus, it would be logical to go for 5Dimes and Pinnacle and go for 24.5.

At this point, you now have a prediction that Ravens winning with a 3.9 advantage over the Packers and a 24.5 aggregate score at halftime. Using this data, you can now deduct 3.9 from the combined score of 24.5 and come up with a net score of 20.6. You assign half of that total point score to each of the teams and add back 3.9 to the Ravens. You will end up with a forecast score of 14.2 for the Ravens and 10.3 for the Packers.SB

The better option would be to consider the best practices of seasoned and highly successful bettors. These are the tips and strategies that were derived from years of experience and have been used by them with favorable results.

TIP 1 – Handle losing streaks properly

Losing streaks are part of the game. When you engage in sports betting, you must make sure that you are properly squared for these negative events. It is not a question of whether they will hit you or not. They will occur and it is just a question of when it will occur. However, the manner by which you will handle them is a completely different story.

Of course, the most logical thing to do is to ride them out as long as you are not making any modifications in your sports betting strategies and sticking it out with your sports handicapper. No one is immune from this downswing, and it is something that you must prepare for when you engage in sports betting.

You can weather the effects of a losing streak if you have a solid money management system. You must not veer off-course or undertake drastic changes in your betting strategies, and once you become consistent in your betting options, you will surely get ahead of the 95 percent of the other bettors.

In a worst case scenario, the best option would be to take some time off from sports betting, and a few days would suffice. Allow yourself to restore your concentration and focus on the game. After a short break, start up with your sports betting activity again and try your best to get back on the winning track as soon as possible.

TIP 2 – Drinking and betting don’t mix

Refrain from making any wager when you are intoxicated. While booze may seem to be a part of the fun aspect of sports betting to some people, having one too many will definitely result to poor judgment and wrong decisions. When one is intoxicated, there is the tendency to become reckless, and when rash decisions are made, terrible results and major losses are the logical consequences.

If you intend to drink with friends while watching the games, it is best that you place your bets on the teams that you are wagering on before the start of the first game. This will give you the opportunity to make your betting decisions while your mind is still “clear” and spend the rest of the evening enjoying the game with your friends.

TIP 3 – Don’t chase the game

This best practice by seasoned sports bettor runs parallel with Tip 1. If you are on a downswing, it is not wise to chase the game to recover what has been lost. It would be better if you forget about your “misfortune” and just move on.

Some sports bettors are tempted to bet big on a particular game after a major downturn. There is that inclination of some bettors to chase the game when their account is running low or when they are expected to pay their bookies at the end of the week. Do not chase the game as you may end up digging a hole from where you will not be able to extricate yourself from. You stand to lose everything if you insist on chasing a game and you may end up losing big time.

TIP 4 – Be in the lookout for the best lines

This is extremely important and the search for the best lines could spell the difference between winning and losing. Despite having a half point or a full point, the result can mean a lot and your losses can be turned into pushes, and some of these pushes may ultimately give you some big wins. And even if the amounts may be immaterial when taken singly, the final result can become significant once you add them all up over time.

This practice may appear to be tedious and downright meaningless to some, but once you see the close losses and pushes that you will have, you will definitely agree that it is not a bad idea after all.

Tip 5 – Come up with the your A-List of Reputable and Reliable Sportsbooks

The magic number is either 4 or 5. It is best that you limit the number of sportsbooks where you are going to deposit your money on and this is consistent with Tip 4. There is a myriad of sportsbooks and it is a mix of good and rotten ones. Suffice it to say, you need to learn how to choose the right sportsbook, and this one will be discussed in another article. SB

Most sport bettors normally find it hard to keep in step with the trends and movements, and this is the main reason why you need to get the service of a professional sports handicapper or a reliable sport betting service provider. You will surely come across people in sport betting forums who will claim that sport betting services and sports handicapping are unreliable and useless and are just a complete waste of your time and money.

While sports handicapping do not necessarily give us the outright winning sports picks, it is definitely far from being a worse option as long as you deal with the sport handicapping service that is proven, honest and reputable.

Choosing the Right Sports Handicappers

This is where the serious stuff comes in. It is essential that you have a keen eye for honest and seasoned sports handicappers. There are thousands of so-called sports handicappers and sports betting gurus, and it is not surprising that about 9 in every 10 of these sports handicappers would be spending most of their time in marketing their services and would hardly find enough time performing a thorough handicapping of the games.

While it is essential for sport handicappers and sports betting service providers to promote their expertise, an unassailable reputation and solid track record are their best marketing tools. They can easily sell their services as long as they maintain a high level of accuracy, consistency and reliability. Sports handicappers don’t need to exert much effort in marketing their services as long as they keep on delivering winning sports picks.

There are a lot of scammers that pose as legitimate sports handicappers. They prey on people who are so gullible that they take their incredible claims hook, line and sinker. But it may be difficult for us to sift through the performance records of these sports handicappers. However, with the right selection guidelines, you can easily find a professional sports handicapper that you can rely on.

Selection Criteria for Sports Handicappers

The search for the most reliable and reputable sports betting service provider and sports handicapper is not an easy task. However, you will be able to separate the grain from chaff if you consider the following search criteria:

If you are able to ascertain each of these selection parameters, then there is a strong chance that you can find the sport betting service that fits your sports investment philosophy and sports betting strategy.
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While it is logical that you set aside a portion of your budget for your sports betting activities, most sports pundits don’t enjoy this luxury of having sufficient funds which they can allocate exclusively for sports betting. Thus, it is best that you determine the bankroll that you can afford given your cash position and which you can maintain over the course of the entire season. This means that you need to pursue the kind of sport betting activities that will not unduly affect your lifestyle and put too much stress on your cash position.

For instance, if you feel that you will get into serious financial bind when you lose an aggregate amount of $10,000 over the course of an entire season, then you need to scale back and find the amount that is within your financial comfort zone. You have to remember that no one is immune from the sports betting “sinkhole” and this includes the best handicappers. The truth of the matter is that even the sharpest handicappers can get themselves in a serious bind and this only proves that it is imperative for sports bettors to determine the amount that they can afford to lose.

Setting your Sports Betting Expectations

As soon as you are able to establish a solid bankroll for your sports betting activities, the next thing that you must do is to establish realistic sports betting expectations in terms of the number of wagers that you should make during the season and the percentage of the your wagers that is expected to give you a win.

Your main objective is to utilize the information that will help you ascertain the amount that you should wager per game while ensuring that you don’t run the risk of using your bankroll at any given time during the current season. Some of the seasoned sports bettors set their threshold of going broke at 0.2 percent.

As far as your targets are concerned, it is best that you take a more conservative mindset. Even if you had a 62 percent winning clip last year, it would not be realistic if you set your sights on this target for the current season if you have not been hitting the winning clip for years. At best, you must set your target as close to 50 percent as possible. In this way, you will allow yourself some extra elbow room so that you have lesser chance of scratching the bottom of your coffers for the rest of the season. If you have been religiously maintaining a record of your sports betting activities in the last four seasons and established a relatively solid winning percentage, then you can adopt that winning percentage as your target for the current season and use it as your yardstick in determining the average bet that you can make for each of the games for the rest of the season.

The number of wagers that you can make for the season is also a critical aspect of your money management model. You have to remember that the variance becomes more pronounced as you wager in more games during a season. Thus, you have to stick to the betting principle that the long term success of your money management strategy hinges on your conservative mindset when establishing your expectations or targets on the number of games that you will come out winner.

Setting a Fixed Unit Amount of Wager per Play for the Entire Season

There are many money management systems for sports betting that advocate the use of fixed percentage for the wager amount based on the size of the bankroll on a weekly basis. This means that if you started the current season with an initial bankroll in the amount of $10,000 and a fixed betting percentage of 5% on each game, then you will launch your sports betting activities for the current season with a bet of $500 per game.

If your total winnings for the first week amount to $1,000, then you would be betting 5 percent of $11,000 ($10,000+$1,000) for the following week or $550 per game. In the event that you lose $1,000 on the first week, then your wagering amount for the second week would amount to $450 per game or 5 percent of $9,000 ($10,000 – $1,000). Under this money management system, your wagering amount will vary as your bankroll increases or decreases each week.

The downside of this money management system is two-pronged. You stand to lose the opportunity to maximize the earning potential of your sports betting activities if you have been making the smallest bets during the part of the season when you have been stringing a lot of winning picks and making the biggest bets during the worst weeks of the current season.

In fact, even if you are going on a pretty smooth run during the season, this money management template is more likely to give you an earning which will fall short of your potential income had you used an alternative money management strategy where you have a fixed amount of wager per game. Generally, a money management strategy where you adjust your wager based on an established percentage of your bankroll will only work in your favor if there are no losing weeks during the season. Since even the sharpest and seasoned handicappers have their fair share of losing weeks, it would be better if you adopt a system where you a fixed amount of wager for each game of the season. sb

There are a lot of money management concepts and philosophies, and it is imperative that you determine which one matches your needs and circumstances. When it comes to sound money management, it is extremely essential that you stick to your chosen strategy regardless of the results. For instance, if you are on a losing streak, you will most likely handicap the games where you have 100 percent confidence on. And there will be situations and instances where you will be tempted to break from the established money management template. It is extremely important that you stick to your strategy regardless of the result that you are getting, lest you want to be burned irretrievably.

Smart Sports Betting Money Management

If you haven’t chosen one yet, then it is best that you consider the following tips when searching for the “best” money management strategy.

• Establish a realistic bankroll – Proper bankroll management would involve the determination of the realistic amount that is within your comfort zone. This is the amount of money that you can lose over the course of the sports betting season without losing the figurative shirt on your back.
• Establish your expectations – It is essential that you establish your expectations on how your wagering would go over the course of the season. This task will also involve the setting of a realistic percentage of winning that you want to achieve. If you have had a not-so-good track record in sports betting, then you may aim for a 50 percent winning clip.
• Adopt a fixed unit amount for your wager per play for the season – It is essential that you set a fixed unit amount for your wager, regardless of how poorly or well your sports betting is going for the current season. In most cases, you will see a significant dip in your margin if you succumb to pressure and vary your wager on a weekly basis.
• Incorporate a progressive bankroll with your fixed unit wager – If you have a good sports betting record, which is usually at least 56 percent winning clip in the last 5 years, you would have the basis to consider a money management strategy which is more aggressive.
• Keep track of your performance – It is imperative that you keep a record of your sports betting. Proper recording of what and how much you are betting on are important in the implementation of the money management system. You can also use this compiled data when you make strategic money management decisions in the future.

Key Elements of an Effective Money Management System

The key to the success of a money management strategy is for you to formulate a method by which you can effectively handicap and pick games. Thus, even the most effective money management system will not deliver the desired results if you are picking more losers than winners. If you want to earn profit in the long run with your money management system, it is imperative that you maintain a decent winning percentage.

There are sports investors that devise their own handicapping system while others tap the services of professional sports handicappers with proven track record and experience. You can go either way but it is important that you prepare a list of the sides that you are planning to wager on for a particular week as well as the amount that you will wager before the start of the game for a particular week night or weekend. It is important that you don’t deviate from this prepared list no matter what. For instance, the results of Wednesday’s games should not have any impact on your betting decision the Thursday night.

Discipline is the most important element of a good money management system. You must have discipline when picking winners in a particular game. This is what makes a winning and profitable sports betting season. SB

If you are familiar with the intricacies of NBA sports betting, then you will not have any difficulty understanding the dynamics of sports betting in college basketball. And for those who are trying college basketball sports betting for the first time, here are some of the basic points that you need to understand and take into account.

Betting Options for College Basketball

Sports bettors should note that NBA sports betting and NCAA basketball sports betting have several things in common. There are 3 forms of sports bets for college basketball – game total or over and under sports betting, money line sports betting and spread sports betting. In addition to these 3 main types of sports betting, sport investors can also place prop sports betting in college basketball games.

Over Under Betting in NCAA Basketball

Over under betting, which is also known as game total betting, takes into account the combined scores of the competing teams for a particular basketball game. The oddsmakers set the game total or over under, and the sports bettors will choose their respective total number for the teams’ total score for the game, which can be over or under the oddsmakers set game total number.

Money Line Betting in College Basketball

When making a money line bet in a college basketball game, you are simply choosing the basketball team which you expect to win in a particular game. It doesn’t matter whether the team wins by a single point or by a large margin. You win as long as the team you placed your bet on wins the basketball game. Of course, the team that is favored to win in a particular basketball match will have a lower payout compared to the underdog team. Thus, you stand to win more if you bet on the underdog team and if that underdog team beats the favored team.

Spread Betting in College Basketball

Spread betting in college basketball requires sports bettors to pick their basketball team. However, it is more complicated and it not just about taking sides and choosing the team that you expect will emerge the winner in a particular match. In spread betting, you have to take into account the oddsmakers’ spread or number of points that a particular team is favored over the other team. This means that if you are betting on the favored team, you will win only if they win by a point margin that is greater than the spread established by the oddsmakers. If you are betting on the underdog basketball team, it must not lose by more than the spread in order for you to win the bet. Suffice to say, you win your bet on the underdog team if it prevails over the favored team.

Prop Betting in College Basketball

Prop betting in college basketball applies to any type of sports betting, which does not consider the final outcome of the basketball game. There are several variations of prop bets which you can make for college basketball. A prop bet may be based on the quarter scores or half-time scores and even the scores of individual players. Sports bettors and investors may also consider future prop bets. A popular future prop bet is on the team that is expected to snatch the National Championship title, and this is a prop bet which can be placed before the season kickoff or during the NCAA season itself.
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The most intimate you can ever get to any sporting event is through sports betting. Aside from watching the sporting event, betting places you in the middle of the sporting action. Whether the team wins or loses, you become part of it. Wagering on your favorite player or team is more than your belief in them. You must take some real risks if you plan to bet your hard earned money on a sporting event.

To successfully bet in any sporting event, it takes technique and skill. After all, the odds to winning are crucial. Keep in mind that betting means there is always a chance of losing. You must learn to make the smartest and most intelligent bet, without letting your emotions get in the way. It is essential that you study the odds and statistics of how likely a player or team can record a win before betting on the outcome. Your bet must be based on an educated guess. It is also essential that you place the bet with a reputable sportsbook. You must be aware of the individual or company that you place the bet with, knowing that in the case of recording a win; you will receive your share of the winning money.

If you want to bet on your favorite player or team and share a stake on their victory, you can do so as long as you are mindful of the risk you are taking. Always conduct some research to determine how safe your bet really is. A safe bet is what will land you a pocket full of money!
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First and foremost, you must set aside a budget to carry out your betting venture. This is known as the bankroll, which is an amount set aside particularly for this venture and would not have an impact on your day to day life. For instance, even if you lost your bankroll, you will still be able to make your mortgage payments, pay your rent, utility bills and so on. Once you have determined the amount you can afford to set aside, you must decide the wagering amount you plan to bet on each and every game. It is ideal if you bet a similar portion on each game. This is known as the betting unit. Before deciding on the amount you plan to put aside for each game, you must decide what kind of a player you want to be. For instance, do you want to be an aggressive player or conservative player? The betting unit is generally 5 percent, however, there are some bettors that either go with 2.5 percent or as high as 10 percent. This usually depends on the size of your bankroll and the kind of player you are.

The betting unit is what helps you minimize your risks whilst trying to make a profit. Many sports bettors tend to lose their money because of indiscipline and placing multiple size wagers. This is not a great wagering method or the best strategy when trying to make a profit in sports betting. Placing smaller bets on each game will help you minimize the losses.

When placing bets, remember not to place more than three to four bets per day as this should be the strongest play. Another key principle is that you should not bet more than half your bankroll at any given time. You should have some part of your bankroll to fall back on in case you have a bad day at sports wagering. Remember to handicap the game before placing your wager. There are sports bettors that research their pick for up to forty hours every week. Depending on whether it is a team or individual player, sports books and other internet resources are available for you to conduct a thorough research. You can join sports betting forums and communities to discuss your viewpoints and thoughts with other handicappers and gain some valuable insight. Handicapping a game means to piece the researched information together and ensure you place your bet made on an educated decision.
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